Notes

Independent Researcher in Quantitative Derivatives. Founder of CrossVol Research.

All notes
credit

The Vehicle Beside the Balance Sheet: Broadcom, Hyperscaler CDS, and the 60 Billion Dollar Question

Broadcom's CDS widened this week and the tape misread it as distress. It is not. The market is starting to price a reported 60 billion dollar off-balance-sheet AI chip financing vehicle, a partial guarantee, and a 30 billion dollar junior first-loss tranche, against a standalone credit that is genuinely strong at 0.33 times net debt to EBITDA and A minus. A signed desk read on the SPV architecture, the four contingent-liability channels for Broadcom bondholders, the bond curve already pricing it at the long end, the trajectory from 60 billion to 370 billion, record investment grade supply indigestion, and the Nvidia earnings tail. Published 22 August 2026 by Djellal Djouad.

2026-08-22
macro

Same Symptoms, Different Disease: why 2026 is not a rerun of 2022

2026-08-20
diesel

Europe's Diesel Winter: the 2026 energy shock every market is pricing except equities

2026-08-08
Brent
Brent

The Complex Voted: Brent Cracked 100 and Every Desk Called It a Spike

2026-07-25
VIX

The VVIX Is Paying for a Volmageddon: VIX Options, Contango, and Positioning into October 2026

2026-07-15
Kospi

Asian Tech Rips, the Refining Distortion, and the Euro's Ceiling: The Desk View for 15 July 2026

2026-07-15
Hormuz

Hormuz, the CPI Print, and Japanese Repatriation: The Risk Confluence of 14 July 2026

2026-07-14
equities

The Rotation Trade Goes Granular: Small Caps, Equal-Weight, and Chips to Hyperscalers into Q2 Earnings

2026-07-13
oil

Oil Market Update, 13 July 2026: Hormuz Escalation, a Bullish Skew, and the Return of the War Trade

2026-07-13
Note
Note

Five Signals, One Screen, No Consensus: What the Options Market Is Actually Pricing on July 3

2026-07-03
Note
Note

The AI Debt Trojan: Why the US IG Index Just Got Prettier and More Fragile

2026-07-03
shadow-banking
shadow-banking

Inside the Coming Crash: Four Convergent Faults in the $3 Trillion Shadow Banking Stack

2026-06-12
Note
Note

HLEND second-quarter 5 percent gate confirms the Convergent Faults thesis

2026-06-12
Note
Note

Inside the B-book Machine: How Retail FX Brokers Make Money From Your Losses

2026-06-11
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Note

The Hormuz Stalemate: Why Neither Side Can Fold

2026-06-10
Note
Note

The AI infrastructure financing loop

2026-06-10
Note
Note

Open-source derivatives toolkit on GitHub

2026-06-10