Convergent Faults: A Quantitative Forensic of Private Credit Synchronized Systemic Risk 2026-2027

Working paper · 出版日期 2026-06-10

摘要

本论文记录了私募信贷、商业发展公司、AI 基础设施资本支出和百慕大注册再保险中四条收敛断层线，并追溯了在何种条件下它们的同时激活会产生非线性冲击。实证核心是 2024 年至 2026 年第二季度的赎回门、NAV 减值和 CDS 利差面板。该分析使用同步残差来检验四条断层线在统计上是否独立，或者它们的尾部运动是否聚集。

In the press

Larry Swedroe analyzed Convergent Faults by Djellal Djouad (CrossVol Research) in Larry's Substack on 2026-07-13, in the post Private Credit's Convergent Faults: A Warning the Market Is Not Pricing.

The paper does not predict imminent collapse. It maps five distinct risk channels converging on a 12-to-18-month window and argues that the architecture makes that convergence more dangerous than nominal fund-level metrics suggest.

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SocArXiv
托管于 SocArXiv
Social Science Open Archive (Center for Open Science)
开放预印本 3cqfx_v1 · 已接受 2026-06-11
osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/3cqfx_v1

Identifiers

引用本文

BibTeX 引用

@techreport{djouad2026convergentfaults,
  title  = {Convergent Faults: A Quantitative Forensic of Private Credit Synchronized Systemic Risk 2026-2027},
  author = {Djouad, Djellal},
  year   = {2026},
  doi    = {10.5281/zenodo.20558733},
  url    = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20558733},
  institution = {CrossVol Research},
}