Convergent Faults: A Quantitative Forensic of Private Credit Synchronized Systemic Risk 2026-2027

Working paper · Publicado 2026-06-10

Resumen

Este paper documenta cuatro líneas de falla convergentes en private credit, business development companies, capex de infraestructura IA y reaseguradora domiciliada en Bermudas, y traza las condiciones bajo las cuales su activación simultánea produce un shock no lineal. El núcleo empírico es un panel de gates de rescate, depreciaciones NAV y spreads CDS desde 2024 hasta el Q2 de 2026. El análisis forense usa residuos sincronizados para probar si las cuatro líneas de falla son estadísticamente independientes o si sus movimientos de cola se agrupan.

In the press

Larry Swedroe analyzed Convergent Faults by Djellal Djouad (CrossVol Research) in Larry's Substack on 2026-07-13, in the post Private Credit's Convergent Faults: A Warning the Market Is Not Pricing.

The paper does not predict imminent collapse. It maps five distinct risk channels converging on a 12-to-18-month window and argues that the architecture makes that convergence more dangerous than nominal fund-level metrics suggest.

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SocArXiv
Alojado en SocArXiv
Social Science Open Archive (Center for Open Science)
Preprint abierto 3cqfx_v1 · Aceptado 2026-06-11
osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/3cqfx_v1

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Citación BibTeX

@techreport{djouad2026convergentfaults,
  title  = {Convergent Faults: A Quantitative Forensic of Private Credit Synchronized Systemic Risk 2026-2027},
  author = {Djouad, Djellal},
  year   = {2026},
  doi    = {10.5281/zenodo.20558733},
  url    = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20558733},
  institution = {CrossVol Research},
}