CrossVol Research · Published 2026-06-09
Field study of four convergent fault lines in private credit, BDCs, AI capex, and Bermuda reinsurance.
A book-length investigation into the structural fragility of the private credit ecosystem. The argument is that four separate fault lines, each forming around 2024-2026, have begun to interact: business development companies funding software rollups with deteriorating cashflows, mid-cap regional bank exposure to commercial real estate amplified by recent valuations, hyperscaler AI capital expenditure outpacing grid capacity, and the Bermuda-domiciled reinsurance complex consolidating life liabilities under thinly capitalised holding structures. When two or more of these faults move simultaneously, the resulting shock is non-linear. The text walks through the dating, the metrics, and the trigger sequence.
Intended readers. For derivatives desks, credit analysts, financial journalists, and policy researchers tracking systemic risk.