https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/ Independent quantitative derivatives research: dealer positioning, FX volatility, AI capex, private credit. en Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:30:00 GMT https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/confluence-of-risks-hormuz-cpi-japan-july-2026/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/confluence-of-risks-hormuz-cpi-japan-july-2026/ Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:30:00 GMT Trump reimposes a full naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz and Brent trades above 85 dollars for the first time in a month. July Fed hike odds jump from under 10 per cent to roughly half. And a quiet structural shift in Japanese capital flows threatens the marginal bid for Treasuries. From the desk, three separate stories are converging into one trade. Published 14 July 2026 by Djellal Djouad. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/rotation-trade-granular-q2-earnings-july-2026/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/rotation-trade-granular-q2-earnings-july-2026/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:00:00 GMT The rotation beneath US equities has not stopped, it has gone granular. Small caps lead the S&P 500 by the widest margin since 2003, the equal-weight index is beating the cap-weight, and inside tech the crowd is rolling from chips into hyperscalers. From the desk, this is churn without a directional break, and Q2 earnings is the anchor that decides it. Published 13 July 2026 by Djellal Djouad. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/oil-market-update-hormuz-escalation-july-2026/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/oil-market-update-hormuz-escalation-july-2026/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMT WTI back near 74 dollars and Brent near 79 after a fresh weekend of US-Iran strikes. One-month call skew is trading roughly 18 vols over puts on both benchmarks. From the desk, the options market is pricing a hard Hormuz closure as a live tail, not a remote one, while Kuwait quietly slashes its selling prices. Published 13 July 2026 by Djellal Djouad. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/five-signals-one-screen-no-consensus-july-2026/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/five-signals-one-screen-no-consensus-july-2026/ Fri, 03 Jul 2026 22:00:00 GMT VIX at 15. OVX at 41. GVZ trading like tech vol. Managed money flat on gold, exiting crude, crowded long copper. Silver compressing the gold-silver ratio from above. Five different narratives on the same desk screen at the same close. The trade is the geometry of the disagreement. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/ai-debt-trojan-ig-index-hyperscalers/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/ai-debt-trojan-ig-index-hyperscalers/ Fri, 03 Jul 2026 22:00:00 GMT AA-rated hyperscalers now represent 52 percent of the Bloomberg US IG index. The IMF, BIS, BofA, Moody's, Ray Dalio, Norway's sovereign wealth fund, Man Group and options markets are all telling you the same thing at the same time, using different languages. They rarely do. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/the-coming-crash-four-convergent-faults/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/the-coming-crash-four-convergent-faults/ Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:50:00 GMT Four convergent fault lines in private credit, BDCs, AI capex, and Bermuda reinsurance are forming around 2024-2026. When two move simultaneously, the shock is non-linear. The pro-side decomposition drawn from The Coming Crash (Djellal Djouad, 2026). https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/hlend-5-percent-gate-convergent-faults/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/hlend-5-percent-gate-convergent-faults/ Fri, 12 Jun 2026 22:00:00 GMT BlackRock's HLEND has capped redemptions at 5 percent for the second straight quarter against 13.3 percent of share requests. Blackstone has joined the same limit this quarter. The 5 percent NAV cap is now the industry standard for the $1.8 trillion private credit market, exactly as documented in the Convergent Faults working paper. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/inside-the-b-book-machine/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/inside-the-b-book-machine/ Thu, 11 Jun 2026 16:30:00 GMT A-book vs B-book mechanics, the five friction layers, the funnel pyramid, FXCM 2017, Alpari 2015, MyForexFunds 2023, ESMA 2018. The pro-side audit retail FX brokers do not want you to read. Sourced from FX Traders vs Brokers (Djellal Djouad, 2026). https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/the-hormuz-stalemate/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/the-hormuz-stalemate/ Wed, 10 Jun 2026 22:00:00 GMT Sixteen tankers off Oman with transponders dark. Two million barrels a day leaking out of the Gulf instead of seventeen. Oil down 30 per cent from the war peak. The market is pricing resolution. From where I sit on the desk, this is not a crisis that resolves. It is a stalemate that neither Iran nor the United States can publicly fold on. Published 10 June 2026 by Djellal Djouad. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/the-ai-infrastructure-financing-loop/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/the-ai-infrastructure-financing-loop/ Wed, 10 Jun 2026 22:00:00 GMT Five Bloomberg, Barron's and MT Newswires reports of 9-10 June 2026 trace a closed financing loop linking Oracle, Apollo, Blackstone, Broadcom, Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, and former crypto-miner datacenter operators. https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/derivatives-toolkit-open-source/ https://djellaldjouad.com/blog/derivatives-toolkit-open-source/ Wed, 10 Jun 2026 22:00:00 GMT Ten Jupyter notebooks on options pricing, gamma exposure, and FX volatility, freely available on GitHub.